Investment Winter
Think of this time as investment winter. It's cold, the snow is
flying and you really don't want to go outside. Remember that
it will warm up again before too long.
What we are going through not unprecedented. The market has been
in similar predicaments before. Here are some interesting factoids
that may help you gain some perspective on our current situation.
There have been at least 10 BEAR markets for the S&P 500 index since
1957 (a bear market is defined as a drop of at least 20%) including the
current decline. For those of you who want/need a refresher, the S&P
500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered
representative of the US stock market. Of the 9 previous bear markets, all
eventually recovered and reached a new closing high.
Let's look at another index: DJIA ("The DOW"). The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 actively traded,
blue chip stocks, primarily industrials. The DJIA was trading
around the 450 mark in 1957. Today, it is trading over
10,000.
We haven't had a day like BLACK MONDAY of 1987 when the S&P 500 fell
20.5% on Monday 10/19/87 - the largest single day drop in the history of the
index. Interestingly the market was trading in positive
territory (up 2%) for the 1987 calendar year in spite of this one
day. The DJIA was trading at 1,939 on December 31, 1987.
RS Investments (New York, NY) says: From 1963 to 1993 there
were 7802 trading days. If an investor missed the top 40 days
he/she would see their average annual return drop from nearly 12% to just
over 7%. On a $10,000 investment this is the difference between accruing
$80,000 and accruing $233,000. Thanks to RS Investments for pointing out
why it pays to stay invested.